| Today | At 18 days 2025-03-31 | At 3 months 2025-06-30 | At 6 months 2025-09-30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0542 -0.0349 (-3.20%) | 1.0724 -0.0166 (-1.53%) | 1.0618 -0.0272 (-2.50%) | 1.0732 -0.0158 (-1.45%) |
| Factor | Value | Forecast for 2025-03-31 | Coefficient |
|---|---|---|---|
| FEDRATE (Fed Rate) | 4.5 | 4.5 | -0.007833 |
| ECBRATE (ECB Rate) | 2.65 | 2.65 | 0.004792 |
| USCPI (US Inflation) | 2.8 | 2 (-0.8 ) | -0.0005 |
| EUCPI (Eurozone Inflation) | 2.4 | 2.2 (-0.2 ) | -0.008105 |
| USGDP_q (US GDP Growth) | 2.3 | 1.8 (-0.5 ) | 0.003146 |
| EUGDP_q (Eurozone GDP Growth) | 0.2 | 1.6 (+1.4 ) | 0.011375 |
| USUNEMPL (US Unemployment) | 4.1 | 4.4 (+0.3 ) | -0.000357 |
| EUUNEMPL (Eurozone Unemployment) | 6.2 | 6.6 (+0.4 ) | 0.045305 |
| Speculation (Speculative Positions) | -10.1 | - | 0.000284 |
Value: 0.00024329209146101
Description: This indicator measures the mean squared deviation of the predicted EUR/USD rate from the actual one. A low value (0.00024329209146101) indicates high model accuracy.
Value: 0.90878980680803
Description: R² indicates how much of the EUR/USD rate changes are explained by the factors included in the model. A value of 0.90878980680803 means the model explains 90.9% of the changes, leaving 9.1% for unaccounted variables.
The linear regression model is described by the following formula:
EUR/USD = Intercept + Σ (Coefficienti × Factori)
Value: 0.81148
Description: This is the baseline EUR/USD rate predicted by the model when all factors (independent variables) are equal to zero. It sets the starting point for the forecast.
| Factor | Coefficient | Description |
|---|---|---|
| FEDRATE (Fed Rate) | -0.007833 | A 1% increase in the Fed rate decreases EUR/USD by -0.007833. This is due to the fact that higher rates make the dollar more attractive. |
| ECBRATE (ECB Rate) | 0.004792 | A 1% increase in the ECB rate raises EUR/USD by 0.004792, making the euro a more attractive asset. |
| USCPI (US Inflation) | -0.0005 | A 1% increase in US inflation reduces EUR/USD by -0.0005 due to the weakening of the dollar's purchasing power. |
| EUCPI (Eurozone Inflation) | -0.008105 | A 1% increase in Eurozone inflation decreases EUR/USD by -0.008105, which may be linked to a drop in investor confidence in the euro. |
| USGDP_q (US GDP Growth) | 0.003146 | A 1% increase in US GDP raises EUR/USD by 0.003146, reflecting the stability of the US economy. |
| EUGDP_q (Eurozone GDP Growth) | 0.011375 | A 1% increase in Eurozone GDP raises EUR/USD by 0.011375, indicating the significant influence of economic activity in the Eurozone. |
| USUNEMPL (US Unemployment) | -0.000357 | A 1% increase in US unemployment raises EUR/USD by -0.000357. This is due to the weakening of the US economy. |
| EUUNEMPL (Eurozone Unemployment) | 0.045305 | A 1% increase in Eurozone unemployment raises EUR/USD by 0.045305. This may be due to cross effects. |
| Speculation (Speculative Positions) | 0.000284 | An increase of 1 unit in speculative positions raises EUR/USD by 0.000284. While the effect is minimal, considering this factor captures market sentiment. |
Value: 1.05351
Description: The total coefficient reflects the combined impact of all factors on the predicted EUR/USD rate. A value above 1.0 (1.05351) indicates that the model predicts a positive contribution from all factors to the growth of the exchange rate. This value is useful for understanding the overall direction of the model.
High R² (0.90878980680803) and low MSE (0.00024329209146101) confirm that the model reliably forecasts the EUR/USD rate.
The model is suitable for medium-term forecasting, considering economic and speculative factors.